Viewing archive of Wednesday, 28 July 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jul 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 28 JUL 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8649 (S15W05)
PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 28/0201Z. THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE
IV SWEPT FREQUENCY BURST, AND A 450 SFU BURST AT 10CM. THIS REGION
ALSO PRODUCED A M2/1B AT 28/0814Z. REGION 8645 (S26E22) PRODUCED A
C7/1N AT 28/1812Z WITH A TYPE II SWEPT FREQUENCY BURST WITH A SPEED
ESTIMATED AT 500 KM/S. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION
8652 (N17W37) AND REGION 8653 (N28W30).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE WITH A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENT CONSIDERING
THE CURRENT REGIONS ON THE SUN.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 29 JUL to 31 JUL
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 JUL 198 Predicted 29 JUL-31 JUL 190/190/185 90 Day Mean 28 JUL 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 JUL 006/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 JUL 012/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 JUL-31 JUL 008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 JUL to 31 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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