Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 June 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jun 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 JUN 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. NEW REGION 8592 (N24E70)
PRODUCED A LONG DURATION C5 AT 19/1355Z. A FAINT LOOP PROMINENCE
SYSTEM AND CORONAL RAIN WERE OBSERVED AT NE18-22 AFTER THE X-RAY
PEAK OF THE EVENT. THIS REGION APPEARED AS TWO MODERATE SIZE AND
WIDELY SEPARATED SPOTS. THIS AREA MAY IN ACTUALITY CONTAIN TWO
REGIONS. A FILAMENT LOCATED NEAR S45W51 ERUPTED BETWEEN
18/2352-19/0134Z. OTHER DISK REGIONS WERE PREDOMINANTLY STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GENERALLY LOW
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
REGION 8592 AND OTHER REGIONS DUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE NORTHEAST
LIMB DURING THE PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 20 JUN to 22 JUN
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 JUN 139 Predicted 20 JUN-22 JUN 143/149/152 90 Day Mean 19 JUN 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 JUN 007/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 JUN 005/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 JUN-22 JUN 007/007-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 JUN to 22 JUN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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