Viewing archive of Sunday, 30 May 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 May 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 30 MAY 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE PERIOD WAS HIGHLIGHTED BY SEVERAL SUBFLARES IN REGION 8558 (N16E43) AND A PAIR OF C1 X-RAY LONG DURATION EVENTS (LDE). REGION 8558 EXHIBITED STEADY GROWTH AND NOW CONSISTS OF APPROXIMATELY 30 SPOTS MEASURING 300 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. FREQUENT BRIGHTNESS FLUCTUATIONS AND SURGES WERE ALSO OBSERVED IN THIS REGION, BUT ONLY MINOR MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY WAS NOTED. THE FIRST OF TWO C1 LDE X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED AT 30/0328Z, LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A CME OFF THE NE LIMB. THE SECOND C1 LDE OCCURRED AT 30/1155Z AND ALSO APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A CME, THIS TIME FROM THE W LIMB.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY FROM REGION 8558 AND C-CLASS FLARES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM 8560 (S24E35), 8552 (N19W18), AND 8559 (N20E03) WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THE LONG DURATION C1 X-RAY EVENTS AND ASSOCIATED CME'S DUE TO THE PRESUMED DIRECTION OF THE EJECTA.
III. Event Probabilities 31 MAY to 02 JUN
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 MAY 157
  Predicted   31 MAY-02 JUN  160/160/160
  90 Day Mean        30 MAY 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 MAY  003/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 MAY  007/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 MAY-02 JUN  010/010-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 MAY to 02 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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