Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 May 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 May 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 MAY 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. YESTERDAY'S LONG DURATION
C-CLASS EVENT THAT BEGAN AT 21/1715Z FINALLLY ENDED AT 21/2141Z. AN
ADDITIONAL C-CLASS EVENT OCCURRED AT 22/0652Z WITH A PEAK OF C1.4
AND NO OPTICAL CORRELATION. A 22 DEGREE FILAMENT NEAR S26E29
DISAPPEARED SOMETIME BETWEEN 21/1850Z AND 22/0634Z. OBSERVATIONS
FROM SOHO SUGGEST THAT THE FILAMENT FADED RATHER THAN ERUPTED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS TODAY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 23 MAY to 25 MAY
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 MAY 140 Predicted 23 MAY-25 MAY 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 22 MAY 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 MAY 005/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 MAY 005/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 MAY-25 MAY 005/008-005/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 MAY to 25 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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