Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 May 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 May 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 20 MAY 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE PERIOD WAS CHARACTERIZED
BY A NUMBER OF WEAK, OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES.
REGION 8549 (N25W59) EMERGED AND PRODUCED SEVERAL OPTICAL
SUB-FLARES. REGION 8550 (S14E74) WAS ALSO NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS X-RAY FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 21 MAY to 23 MAY
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 MAY 143 Predicted 21 MAY-23 MAY 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 20 MAY 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 MAY 008/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 MAY 008/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 MAY-23 MAY 005/008-005/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 MAY to 23 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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