Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 March 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Mar 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 065 Issued at 2200Z on 06 MAR 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A C1 X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED AT
06/1410Z WHICH WAS OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE
NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8482 (S26E64) AND REGION 8483 (S18W05).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF ACTIVE
TO MINOR STOM CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS HAVE BEEN AT HIGH LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. PERIODS
OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF
THE ELONGATED CORONAL HOLE IN THE SOUTHWEST.
III. Event Probabilities 07 MAR to 09 MAR
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 MAR 114 Predicted 07 MAR-09 MAR 116/118/125 90 Day Mean 06 MAR 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 MAR 017/018 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 MAR 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 MAR-09 MAR 008/009-008/009-008/009
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 MAR to 09 MAR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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