Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 March 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Mar 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 062 Issued at 2200Z on 03 MAR 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8471 (N29W52) PRODUCED A
C2/SF AT 03/0128Z AND A C4/SF AT 03/0345Z. THIS REGION SHOWED SLIGHT
DECAY DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8476 (N18W22) PRODUCED A C1/SF AT
03/0602Z AND A C1/SF AT 03/1654Z. CONTINUED GROWTH WAS OBSERVED IN
THIS REGION AND MINOR MIXED POLARITIES WERE OBSERVED. REGION 8475
(N31W10) WAS RELATIVELY QUIET BUT MINOR MIXING OF POLARITIES WAS
ALSO VISIBLE IN THIS REGION. BEGINNING AT 03/1841Z, THE MAUNA LOA
CORONAGRAPH OBSERVED A CORONAL MASS EJECTION AND ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE
FROM NEAR SW20.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO
MODERATE. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS ARE EXPECTED FROM REGIONS 8471,
8475, AND 8476. EACH OF THESE REGIONS IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS. CONTINUED GROWTH IN REGION 8476 COULD MAKE
IT THE PREDOMINANT FLARE PRODUCING REGION ON THE SUN. OVERALL
ACTIVITY LEVELS SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED BEGINNING ON 6 MAR AS
PREVIOUSLY ACTIVE LONGITUDES RETURN TO THE EAST LIMB.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE
PLANETARY K-INDEX REACHED ACTIVE LEVELS IN THE 03/1500-2100Z
INTERVAL. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY DECREASED APPROXIMATELY 100 KM/S
DURING THE PERIOD AND BZ WAS NORTHWARD FOR ALMOST ALL THE PERIOD.
ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BECAME MODERATE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
SLIGHT CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS COULD BE EXPERIENCED ON 06 MAR.
BEGINNING THEN, BRIEF PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
III. Event Probabilities 04 MAR to 06 MAR
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 MAR 137 Predicted 04 MAR-06 MAR 140/143/150 90 Day Mean 03 MAR 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 MAR 012/018 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 MAR 010/013 PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 MAR-06 MAR 008/013-008/009-010/009
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 MAR to 06 MAR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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