Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 February 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Feb 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 056 Issued at 2200Z on 25 FEB 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8470 (S23E31) PRODUCED
A C1/SF EVENT AT 25/1800Z. A COUPLE OTHER MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY
EVENTS OCCURRED EARLIER DURING THE PERIOD WITH NO OPTICAL
CORRELATION. SUBFLARING WAS OBSERVED FROM REGIONS 8471 (N30E25) AND
8472 (N30E48). REGIONS 8471 AND 8472 SHOWED SLIGHT GROWTH. NO NEW
REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ONE ISOLATED
PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS FROM 25/0300 TO 0600Z. THE GREATER THAN
2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ROSE SLOWLY AND ENTERED
MODERATE LEVELS AROUND 25/1400Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
III. Event Probabilities 26 FEB to 28 FEB
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 FEB 120 Predicted 26 FEB-28 FEB 120/118/115 90 Day Mean 25 FEB 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 FEB 006/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 FEB 009/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 FEB-28 FEB 008/008-008/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 FEB to 28 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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