Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 February 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Feb 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 034 Issued at 2200Z on 03 FEB 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW DUE TO AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED
C1 FLARE AT 0152Z. REGION 8453 (S26E32) SHOWED SLOW GROWTH DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS, BUT WAS ESSENTIALLY STABLE. THE REMAINING TWO
SUNSPOT REGIONS WERE VERY QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8453 MAY PRODUCE AN OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENT IF
CURRENT GROWTH CONTINUES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITIDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF ENHANCED ACTIVITY ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO CORONAL HOLE
EFFECTS. THE HOLE IS OF SUFFICIENTLY HIGH LATITUDE, HOWEVER, THAT
SUSTAINED ACTIVITY IS UNLIKELY.
III. Event Probabilities 04 FEB to 06 FEB
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 FEB 109 Predicted 04 FEB-06 FEB 110/110/115 90 Day Mean 03 FEB 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 FEB 003/002 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 FEB 005/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 FEB-06 FEB 010/012-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 FEB to 06 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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