Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 January 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jan 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 028 Issued at 2200Z on 28 JAN 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THE CURRENT ACTIVE
REGIONS HAVE SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE AS THEY PRODUCE MINOR FLARES.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW TO LOW WITH SMALL X-RAY EVENTS REACHING TO ABOUT CLASS C
THRESHOLDS FROM THE CURRENT ACTIVE REGIONS. AT THIS POINT, THE
BEST PROSPECTS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY MIGHT BE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH FILAMENT ACTIVITY. THE LONG FILAMENT STRUCTURES NOW VISIBLE ON
THE SOLAR FACE ARE INDICATIVE OF CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND
RESTRUCTURING OF LARGE SCALE FIELDS AS THE NEW CYCLE CONTINUES TO
BUILD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY HAS BEEN UNSETTLED. ENERGETIC PARTICLE FLUXES
CONTINUE THEIR DECLINE FROM THE SMALL ENHANCEMENT OF JANUARY 25 AND
ARE NEARING THEIR NORMAL QUIET LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 29 JAN to 31 JAN
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 JAN 119 Predicted 29 JAN-31 JAN 112/110/110 90 Day Mean 28 JAN 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 JAN 006/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 JAN 007/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 JAN-31 JAN 006/008-005/005-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 JAN to 31 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 02% | 02% | 02% |
| Major-severe storm | 02% | 02% | 02% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 06% | 06% | 07% |
| Minor storm | 03% | 03% | 03% |
| Major-severe storm | 02% | 02% | 02% |
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