Viewing archive of Friday, 8 January 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jan 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 008 Issued at 2200Z on 08 JAN 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8431 (S28E19) PRODUCED
THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE PAST DAY, A LONG-DURATION C3/SF PEAKING AT
08/1022UT. THIS REGION IS A SMALL, RELATIVELY SIMPLE BIPOLAR SUNSPOT
GROUP. THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE VISIBLE DISK IS 8426 (N14W50) AND IS
SLOWLY DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FROM A NUMBER OF SMALL ACTIVE REGIONS
INCLUDING 8426 (N14W50), 8431 (S28E19), 8433 (S28W04), AND 8434
(S27E35).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. ACTIVE CONDITIONS
WERE EXPERIENCED AT MANY STATIONS DURING THE 08/0900-1200UT PERIOD.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS.
III. Event Probabilities 09 JAN to 11 JAN
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 JAN 116 Predicted 09 JAN-11 JAN 115/115/120 90 Day Mean 08 JAN 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 JAN 006/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 JAN 013/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 JAN-11 JAN 010/015-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 JAN to 11 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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