Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 October 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Oct 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 OCT 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS. ISOLATED B- AND
C-CLASS SUBFLARES OCCURRED. MODERATE GROWTH WAS OBSERVED IN REGION
8360 (S19W25), BUT IT REMAINED STRUCTURALLY SIMPLE. THREE NEW
REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED: 8361 (N14W10), 8362 (N20E73), AND 8363
(N26E47), ALL OF WHICH WERE SMALL, SIMPLE SPOT GROUPS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT LOW LEVELS. REGIONS 8358 (N15W26) AND 8360 APPEAR CAPABLE OF
C-CLASS FLARE PRODUCTION. REGION 8360 MAY ALSO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS FLARE, SHOULD ITS PRESENT RATE OF GROWTH CONTINUE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER,
ACTIVITY INCREASED DURING 15/1600-1800UT WITH UNSETTLED LEVELS
DETECTED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS AT
HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE REMAINED AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD. AN
INCREASE TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ON THE FINAL DAY.
III. Event Probabilities 16 OCT to 18 OCT
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 OCT 131 Predicted 16 OCT-18 OCT 135/140/140 90 Day Mean 15 OCT 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 OCT 002/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 OCT 004/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 OCT-18 OCT 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 OCT to 18 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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