Viewing archive of Monday, 5 October 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Oct 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 OCT 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8350 (N19E28)
PRODUCED SOME MINOR B-CLASS SUBFLARES BUT OTHERWISE SHOWED LITTLE
CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. A SMALL B-TYPE SPOT GROUP HAS RE-EMERGED IN
REGION 8349 (S23W26). NEW REGION 8351 (S18W66) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW. REGION 8350 HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRODUCING A C-CLASS
FLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET WITH ISOLATED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN
HIGH LATITUDES TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT HIGH LEVELS ALL DAY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III. Event Probabilities 06 OCT to 08 OCT
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 OCT 117 Predicted 06 OCT-08 OCT 118/119/120 90 Day Mean 05 OCT 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 OCT 003/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 OCT 003/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 OCT-08 OCT 005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 OCT to 08 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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