Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 October 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Oct 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 OCT 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS
OCCURRED. MOST WERE NOT OPTICALLY CORRELATED TO ANY SPECIFIC REGION.
REGION 8349 (S26E29) GREW SLIGHTLY AND PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES.
THE LOOP PROMINENCE SYSTEM, VISIBLE AFTER THE FLARE ON 30 SEP FROM
REGION 8340 (NOW AT N23W106), FADED DURING THE PERIOD. NEW REGION
8350 (N20E79) ROTATED ONTO THE DISK AS A MODERATE SIZE H CLASS SPOT.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT A LOW
LEVEL. ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A DIMINISHING
PROBABILITY OF M-CLASS EVENTS FROM DEPARTED REGION 8340.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM
LEVELS. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD WAS 01/0000-0300Z. SOLAR WIND DATA
SHOW A MODERATELY HIGH VELOCITY FLOW IMPACTING THE EARTH. THE
GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 1200 PFU AT
01/0025Z. FLUXES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WERE BELOW 40 PFU. THE
GREATER THAN 100 MEV PROTON FLUX DROPPED BELOW THE 1 PFU THRESHOLD
AT 30/2235Z. THE POLAR CAP ABSORPTION EVENT CONTINUED BUT DECAYED AS
THE PROTON FLUX DECREASED. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES WERE HIGH AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY AND DECREASED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS ON 02 OCT. IT IS NOW BELIEVED THAT ON
02-03 OCT THE EARTH WILL RECEIVE AN OBLIQUE STRIKE FROM A LARGE CME
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTIVITY ON 30 SEP. UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM
LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE DURING 02-03 OCT WITH ISOLATED MAJOR STORM
PERIODS POSSIBLE AT HIGH LATITUDES. UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 04 OCT. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON
EVENT SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 PFU IN 1-2 DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 02 OCT to 04 OCT
| Class M | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | IN PROGRESS | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 OCT 119 Predicted 02 OCT-04 OCT 115/113/112 90 Day Mean 01 OCT 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 SEP 006/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 OCT 017/022 PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 OCT-04 OCT 015/020-018/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 OCT to 04 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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