Viewing archive of Monday, 28 September 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Sep 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 SEP 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8347
(S12W21), 8348 (N16E79), AND 8349 (S27E67) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
REGION 8340 (N21W69) PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL AND MODERATE C-CLASS
X-RAY, SUB-FAINT FLARES AS IT DECREASED IN SIZE AND COMPLEXITY. AN
OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M3 XRAY EVENT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A RADIO
BURST AND TYPE 2 AND 4 SWEEP. REGION 8343 (N37W52) REGAINED 2 SPOTS AFTER
BEING A PLAGE REGION FOR 2 DAYS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW WITH A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE PERIOD.
ENERGETIC ELECTRONS WERE AT HIGH LEVELS AFTER 0900UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ENERGETIC ELECTRONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AT HIGH LEVELS.
III. Event Probabilities 29 SEP to 01 OCT
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 SEP 123 Predicted 29 SEP-01 OCT 125/128/133 90 Day Mean 28 SEP 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 SEP 008/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 SEP 008/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 SEP-01 OCT 005/010-008/010-010/013
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 SEP to 01 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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