Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 August 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Aug 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 AUG 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8293 PRODUCED A C7/SF
BEFORE ROTATING OVER THE WEST LIMB. THE OTHER TWO ACTIVE REGIONS
WERE 8297 (N31W40) AND 8299 (N16W26). BOTH REGIONS PRODUCED A MINOR
C-CLASS FLARE WITH CORRESPONDING OPTICAL SUB-FLARES. THE REST OF THE
SUN WAS QUIET AND STABLE. 3 NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED: 8304
(S30E64), 8305 (S25E10), AND 8306 (N28E82). THE BACKGROUND X-RAY
FLUX HAS BEEN HIGH TODAY, IN THE RANGE OF B6-B8.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGIONS 8297 AND 8299 CAN BE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE C-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 16 AUG to 18 AUG
| Class M | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 AUG 133 Predicted 16 AUG-18 AUG 130/125/125 90 Day Mean 15 AUG 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 AUG 005/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 AUG 005/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 AUG-18 AUG 005/008-010/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 AUG to 18 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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