Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 August 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Aug 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 AUG 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE. AN UNOBSERVED M3 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED AT 0317Z. TYPE II SWEEP AND MODERATE DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS ACCOMPANIED THE EVENT. FREQUENT LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES FROM REGIONS 8293 (S22W05) AND 8299 (N16E64) WERE COMMONPLACE DURING THE PERIOD. BOTH OF THESE REGIONS ARE IMPRESSIVE IN WHITE LIGHT AND H-ALPHA, AND SHOW NO SIGNS OF ABATING THEIR FLARE ACTIVITY. IN THE EARLY HOURS OF 08 AUGUST, A VERY PROMINENT, CENTRALLY-LOCATED FILAMENT MEASURING APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES DISAPPEARED. THIS FEATURE WAS ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH AND CENTERED NEAR N30E00. IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS WAS A SYMPTOM OF A MASS EJECTION HIGHER IN THE CORONA. ELSEWHERE, THE REMAINING FOUR SPOTTED REGIONS EXHIBITED LITTLE ACTIVITY, AND THE LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8293 AND 8299 ARE BOTH GOOD CANDIDATES FOR CONTINUED OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. SHORT-LIVED SUBSTORMS OCCURRED DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TODAY'S DSF/CME EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FIELD BEFORE 12 AUGUST.
III. Event Probabilities 09 AUG to 11 AUG
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 AUG 147
  Predicted   09 AUG-11 AUG  150/150/145
  90 Day Mean        08 AUG 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 AUG  024/028
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 AUG  013/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 AUG-11 AUG  010/012-005/010-005/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 AUG to 11 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%10%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%20%20%
Minor storm20%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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