Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 July 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jul 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 JUL 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. AN UNCORRELATED C2.7 XRAY
FLARE WAS OBSERVED TODAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II RADIO BURST.
THE ESTIMATED SHOCK SPEED WAS 1600 KM/S +/- 400 KM/S.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8266 HAS ROTATED OFF THE SOLAR DISK. TWO OLD
REGIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. ENERGETIC ELECTRONS WERE AT HIGH
LEVELS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 19 JUL to 21 JUL
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 JUL 099 Predicted 19 JUL-21 JUL 100/100/104 90 Day Mean 18 JUL 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 JUL 009/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 JUL 006/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 JUL-21 JUL 007/008-007/008-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 JUL to 21 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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