Viewing archive of Sunday, 21 June 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jun 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 JUN 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8243 (N17W38) CONTINUED
TO GENERATE SMALL C-CLASS FLARES. THE LARGEST WAS A C3/SF AT
20/2210Z. GROWTH IN THIS REGION APPEARS TO BE SLOWING. OTHER REGIONS
WERE QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS PROBABLE IN REGION 8243. A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS FLARE REMAINS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE AFTER 21/1500Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
III. Event Probabilities 22 JUN to 24 JUN
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 JUN 102 Predicted 22 JUN-24 JUN 104/106/106 90 Day Mean 21 JUN 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 JUN 008/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 JUN 015/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 JUN-24 JUN 015/010-015/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 JUN to 24 JUN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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