Viewing archive of Monday, 15 June 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jun 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 JUN 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE
EXTENDING TO 0.31 SOLAR RADII OCCURRED ON THE SOUTHWEST LIMB AROUND
15/0600UT. A LONG-DURATION C1 X-RAY FLARE (15/0600-0937UT) AND
CORONAL MASS EJECTION (CME) ACCOMPANIED THE ERUPTION. THE CME DID
NOT APPEAR TO BE EARTH-DIRECTED. A 36-DEGREE FILAMENT DISAPPEARED
FROM THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT DURING 15/1314-1420UT. THIS LARGE,
NORTH-SOUTH ALLIGNED FILAMENT WAS LAST SEEN CENTERED NEAR S62E17.
NEW REGION 8249 (S27E74) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGIONS 8242 (S21E16), 8243 (N17E39), AND 8244 (N34E03) APPEAR
CAPABLE OF ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARE PRODUCTION.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. HOWEVER, ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE FINAL TWO DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 16 JUN to 18 JUN
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 JUN 100 Predicted 16 JUN-18 JUN 100/100/098 90 Day Mean 15 JUN 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 JUN 015/015 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 JUN 007/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 JUN-18 JUN 005/010-010/012-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 JUN to 18 JUN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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