Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 June 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jun 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 JUN 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO AN M1 X-RAY EVENT AT 0420Z. AN EXAMINATION OF GOES X-RAY DATA SHOWED THAT THIS LEVEL RESULTED FROM THE SUPERPOSITION OF A SHORT, IMPULSIVE 1N FLARE FROM REGION 8242 (S23E42) ON TOP OF A LONG DURATION X-RAY EVENT. THE LONG DURATION EVENT BEGAN AT ABOUT 03Z AND CONTINUED THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. DURING THIS SAME INTERVAL A SERIES OF LASCO IMAGES (STARTING AT 0355 AND ENDING AT 0730Z) SHOWED TRANSIENT MATERIAL MOVING OFF OF THE WEST LIMB. REGION 8242 PRODUCED ADDITIONAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES DURING THE DAY. REGION 8237 (S24W08) PRODUCED A C-CLASS EVENT AT 1554Z WHICH WAS ACCOMPANIED BY PARALLEL H-ALPHA FLARE RIBBONS. NEW REGION 8245 (S19E15) EMERGED ON THE DISK AND SHOWED STEADY GROWTH. NEW REGION 8246 WAS ASSIGNED TO THE SPOTS THAT EMERGED NEAR N14W48, JUST EAST OF REGION 8234 (N16W57). REGION 8240 HAS NOW ROTATED BEYOND THE WEST LIMB.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT, WITH REGION 8242 AS THE MOST LIKELY SOURCE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THROUGH 1927Z WHEN A WEAK (BUT NOT SUDDEN) IMPULSE WAS OBSERVED ON THE DAYSIDE MAGNETOMETERS. THE IMPULSE WAS PRECEDED BY COMPRESSION SIGNATURE AT ACE AT 1855Z. THE L1 DATA SHOWED MANY FEATURES SIMILAR TO A SHOCK (ENHANCED VELOCITY, DENSITY, TEMPERATURE AND MAGNETIC FIELDS), BUT CHANGED OVER A LONGER TIME INTERVAL THAN A TRUE SHOCK (ABOUT 5 MINUTES), SUGGESTING THAT L1 WAS EITHER ON THE FLANKS OF A FAST CME OR WAS AHEAD OF A RELATIVELY SLOW CME. THE FORMER SEEMS MORE LIKELY, GIVEN THE CLEAR OBSERVATIONS OF TRANSIENT ACVITITY FROM THE EAST LIMB ON THE 11TH. THE GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY LEVELS RESPONDED MILDLY BY INCREASING FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 14 JUN to 16 JUN
Class M 20%20%20%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 JUN 111
  Predicted    14 JUN-16 JUN  110/105/105
  90 Day Mean        13 JUN 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 JUN  006/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 JUN  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 JUN-16 JUN  005/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 JUN to 16 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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