Viewing archive of Sunday, 31 May 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 May 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 31 MAY 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY A SINGLE C-CLASS FLARE OCCURRED TODAY; A C2 AT 31/0515Z. REGION 8227 (N26W04) HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE OR ACTIVITY. REGION 8230 (S20E48) PRODUCED A B4/SF AT 31/1805Z AND HAS INCREASED ITS SPOT COUNT FROM 7 TO 13 IN A "DSO-BETA" GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8230.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV FLUX APPROACHED NEAR THRESHOLD LEVEL (1000PFU) AT 31/2000Z AND HAS REMAINED THERE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III. Event Probabilities 01 JUN to 03 JUN
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 MAY 094
  Predicted   01 JUN-03 JUN  096/096/098
  90 Day Mean        31 MAY 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 MAY  020/025
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 MAY  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 JUN-03 JUN  007/010-007/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 JUN to 03 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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