Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 May 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 May 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 MAY 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGIONS 8224 (S24W90) AND 8226 (N18W66) PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES INCLUDING A C7 LONG DURATION EVENT AT 27/1335Z WITH MODERATE RADIO BURSTS. BOTH REGIONS HAD A FLARE IN PROGRESS DURING THE X-RAY EVENT. LASCO IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION ORIGINATING FROM THE NW. WELL DEFINED POST FLARE LOOPS ARE OBVIOUS ON THE EIT IMAGES SUGGESTING THAT REGION 8226 WAS THE PROBABLE SOURCE FOR THE LONG DURATION EVENT. A MODERATE 8 FREQUENCY RADIO BURST AND TENFLARE ALSO OCCURRED WITH THIS EVENT. REGION 8224 WAS SPOTLESS FOR MOST OF ITS TRANSIT ON THE VISIBLE DISK BEFORE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY EARLY YESTERDAY. SPOTS ARE NOW VISIBLE IN THIS REGION AS IT ROUNDS THE WEST LIMB. REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. DRAMATIC GROWTH IN REGION 8224 WILL LIKELY ENSURE CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND A DEVELOPING CHANCE FOR M-CLASS. REGION 8226 WILL ALSO CONTINUE PRODUCING C-CLASS WITH A CHANCE OF A M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. WE ARE EXPECTING MINOR GEOEFFECTIVNESS ON DAY 3 FROM TODAY'S LONG DURATION EVENT.
III. Event Probabilities 28 MAY to 30 MAY
Class M15%10%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 MAY 094
  Predicted   28 MAY-30 MAY  094/094/096
  90 Day Mean        27 MAY 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 MAY  007/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 MAY  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 MAY-30 MAY  007/008-007/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 MAY to 30 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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