Viewing archive of Sunday, 24 May 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 May 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 MAY 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A SINGLE C1 X-RAY FLARE
OCCURRED AT 0807Z, ASSOCIATED WITH EITHER REGION 8226 (N18W28) OR
REGION 8222 (N24W90). SURGING OCCURRED WITH THE LIMB TRANSIT OF 8222
MUCH OF THE DAY, INCLUDING A PARTICULARLY INTENSE OCCURRENCE NEAR
THE TIME OF THE X-RAY BURST. REGION 8226 CONTINUED TO GROW IN WHITE
LIGHT AND H-ALPHA, AND NOW NUMBERS APPROXIMATELY 20 SPOTS AND A
FIELD OF BRIGHT PLAGE. IT HAD A SF FLARE AT 0733Z, JUST PRIOR TO THE
C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT LOW LEVELS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE AT MIDDLE LATITUDES, AND
QUIET TO MINOR STORM AT HIGH LATITUDES. BRIEF SUBSTORMING OCCURRED
DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIMES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SUBSTORMS MAY PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
III. Event Probabilities 25 MAY to 27 MAY
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 MAY 096 Predicted 25 MAY-27 MAY 100/100/105 90 Day Mean 24 MAY 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 MAY 008/013 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 MAY 015/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 MAY-27 MAY 010/015-005/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 MAY to 27 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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