Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 May 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 May 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 MAY 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. HOWEVER, TWO NEW REGIONS,
8225 (S18E62) AND 8226 (N17W12) WERE ASSIGNED. REGION 8225 IS THE
SEEMINGLY BENIGN RETURN OF OLD ERUPTIVE REGION 8210. IT IS SIMPLE IN
WHITE LIGHT AND H-ALPHA. IN CONTRAST, REGION 8226, BORN ON THE DISK
EARLY TODAY, HAS QUICKLY GROWN TO NOW SHOW PENUMBRA ON BOTH THE
LEADER AND TRAILER SPOTS. STRONG ARCH-FILAMENTS AND A MODEST AMOUNT
OF BRIGHT PLAGE ARE VISIBLE THERE. SOME SURGING WAS NOTED WITH THE
LIMB TRANSIT OF REGION 8222 (N24W77).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGION 8226 MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PRODUCE OCCASIONAL C-CLASS
FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES, AND
QUIET TO ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 24 MAY to 26 MAY
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 MAY 090 Predicted 24 MAY-26 MAY 095/095/100 90 Day Mean 23 MAY 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 MAY 006/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 MAY 010/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 MAY-26 MAY 010/015-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 MAY to 26 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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