Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 May 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 May 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 MAY 1998 ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8218 (S20W05) PRODUCED A
C1 X-RAY FLARE AND A B6/SF EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE ACTIVITY DECLINED
TO VERY LOW LEVELS AFTER 12/0830UT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED
C1 FLARE AT 12/1846UT.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION 8218.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX INCREASED TO CONSISTENT HIGH LEVELS AFTER 12/1400UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH
LEVELS.
III. Event Probabilities 13 MAY to 15 MAY
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 MAY 112 Predicted 13 MAY-15 MAY 112/110/108 90 Day Mean 12 MAY 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 MAY 008/013 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 MAY 012/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 MAY-15 MAY 010/010-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 MAY to 15 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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