Viewing archive of Friday, 24 April 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Apr 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 24 APR 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. AN UNCORRELATED C8 X-RAY BURST WAS DETECTED AT 24/0852Z. THIS MAY HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE ON THE SE LIMB AT S34 WHICH BEGAN AT 24/0450Z. THIS EPL ENDED AT 24/0940Z. THE REMAINDER OF THE VISIBLE DISK WAS QUIET. NEW REGION 8210 (S19E70) WAS NUMBERED TODAY. THIS REGION WAS THE SITE OF YESTERDAY'S CME ASSOCIATED WITH AN X1 FLARE, A LOOP PROMINENCE SYSTEM AND NUMEROUS POINT BRIGHTENINGS. THE REGION CONTAINS ONLY BRIGHT PLAGE AND ACTIVE SURGING AT THIS TIME, BUT PRELIMINARY REPORTS OF SPOTS WERE RECEIVED LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE AS REGION 8210 ROTATES ONTO THE VISIBLE DISK. THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE C-CLASS AND M-CLASS ACTIVITY DURING ITS TRANSIT OF THE DISK, AS WELL AS ISOLATED X-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MINOR STORM. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS SET IN ABOUT 23/1900Z WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SHOCK RESULTING FROM THE CME REPORTED ON 21 APRIL. THIS ACTIVITY LASTED UNTIL 24/1500Z WHEN THE FIELD FINALLY SETTLED DOWN. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT ENDED AT 24/1550Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS, THEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS MAY STILL EXPERIENCE ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS.
III. Event Probabilities 25 APR to 27 APR
Class M15%25%25%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 APR 091
  Predicted   25 APR-27 APR  094/094/096
  90 Day Mean        24 APR 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 APR  013/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 APR  027/032
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 APR-27 APR  015/015-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 APR to 27 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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