Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 April 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Apr 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 091 Issued at 2200Z on 01 APR 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8190 (S21E25) CONTINUED
TO GROW STEADILY TODAY AND PRODUCED THREE C-CLASS FLARES; THE
LARGEST WAS A C2/SF AT 0923Z. THE MAIN INVERSION LINE OF THE REGION
IS ORIENTED IN A NORTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. REGION
8185 (S25W64) PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 1358Z BUT WAS OTHERWISE QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE, HOWEVER, FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT
FROM REGION 8190.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. HIGH
LATITUDES EXPERIENCED MINOR SUBSTORM ACTIVITY FROM 0300-1000UT. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES CONTINUE TO BE AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A POSSIBLILITY FOR ENHANCED ACTIVITY IN RESPONSE TO
SUNDAY'S FILAMENT ERUPTION. UNSETTLED TO QUIET LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ON THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 02 APR to 04 APR
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 APR 106 Predicted 02 APR-04 APR 105/100/098 90 Day Mean 01 APR 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 MAR 007/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 APR 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 APR-04 APR 015/012-010/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 APR to 04 APR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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