Viewing archive of Saturday, 7 February 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Feb 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 038 Issued at 2200Z on 07 FEB 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8152 (S22W71) IS
THE LIKELY SOURCE REGION FOR SEVERAL OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED MINOR
B-CLASS FLARES. THIS REGION EXHIBITED NUMEROUS INTENSITY
FLUCTUATIONS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT SHOWED NO APPARENT CHANGE IN
SPOT COUNT OR COMPLEXITY. THE REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET. A POOR-QUALITY SOUTHERN CORONAL
HOLE EXTENSION IS IN A GEOEFFECTIVELY FAVORABLE POSITION AND MAY
CREATE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN
LATITUDES
III. Event Probabilities 08 FEB to 10 FEB
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 FEB 083 Predicted 08 FEB-10 FEB 083/083/084 90 Day Mean 07 FEB 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 FEB 002/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 FEB 002/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 FEB-10 FEB 005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 FEB to 10 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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