Viewing archive of Wednesday, 4 February 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Feb 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 FEB 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. AN OPTICALLY-UNCORRELATED
B6 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED AT 04/1751UT. A CORONAL MASS EJECTION (CME)
WAS SEEN DEPARTING THE WEST LIMB AROUND THE TIME OF THE FLARE. THE
CME DID NOT APPEAR TO BE EARTH-DIRECTED. THERE WERE TWO SMALL,
STABLE SUNSPOT REGIONS PRESENT ON THE DISK. NO NEW REGIONS WERE
ASSIGNED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING
04/0000 - 0600UT. THE ACTIVE LEVELS WERE BRIEF AND CONFINED TO THE
UPPER MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES. OTHERWISE, THE FIELD WAS AT MOSTLY
QUIET LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET.
III. Event Probabilities 05 FEB to 07 FEB
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 FEB 089 Predicted 05 FEB-07 FEB 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 04 FEB 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 FEB 004/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 FEB 008/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 FEB-07 FEB 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 FEB to 07 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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