Viewing archive of Monday, 5 January 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jan 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 JAN 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW DUE TO A C1 FLARE WHICH
OCCURRED AT 05/0159Z. NO OPTICAL FLARE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED. ALL
NUMBERED DISK REGIONS ARE SMALL AND SIMPLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ACTIVITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON JANUARY 06-07 IN RESPONSE TO A CME WHICH WAS
OBSERVED JANUARY 03.
III. Event Probabilities 06 JAN to 08 JAN
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 JAN 089 Predicted 06 JAN-08 JAN 086/084/084 90 Day Mean 05 JAN 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 JAN 003/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 JAN 004/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 JAN-08 JAN 010/010-015/012-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 JAN to 08 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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