Viewing archive of Monday, 22 December 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Dec 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 DEC 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8124 (S22E54), CURRENTLY
A 20-SPOT 'EAC' BETA-GAMMA GROUP, GENERATED THREE C-CLASS EVENTS
DURING THE REPORTING PERIOD, THE LARGEST A C6/SF AT 22/1541Z.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION'S OVERALL SIZE HAS INCREASED ONLY SLIGHTLY
SINCE YESTERDAY, ITS SPOT COUNT HAS MORE THAN DOUBLED AND IT HAS
BECOME MORE MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 23 DEC to 25 DEC
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 DEC 097 Predicted 23 DEC-25 DEC 098/098/099 90 Day Mean 22 DEC 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 DEC 003/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 DEC 003/003 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 DEC-25 DEC 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 DEC to 25 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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