Viewing archive of Saturday, 20 December 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Dec 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 20 DEC 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8123 (N18W20),
CURRENTLY A 6-SPOT 'DSO' BETA GROUP, HAS REMAINED STABLE THROUGHOUT
THE REPORTING PERIOD. NEW REGION 8124 (S22E78), A SINGLE SPOT 'HSX'
ALPHA, WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH THE CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
III. Event Probabilities 21 DEC to 23 DEC
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 DEC 090 Predicted 21 DEC-23 DEC 086/086/088 90 Day Mean 20 DEC 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 DEC 005/002 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 DEC 004/003 PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 DEC-23 DEC 010/010-010/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 DEC to 23 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 00% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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