Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 December 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Dec 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 DEC 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW DUE TO A SINGLE C-CLASS FLARE (A
C2 AT 15/2350Z). NO OPTICAL REPORTS WERE RECEIVED FOR THIS X-RAY
FLARE BUT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT REGION 8123 (N18E32) WAS THE
SOURCE. REGION 8123 HAS GROWN AND IS NOW A SMALL D-TYPE SUNSPOT
GROUP. REGION 8122 (N30W72) HAS DECAYED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. SMALL FLARES COULD OCCUR IN REGION 8123.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
WAS MODERATE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BECOMING
QUIET TO UNSETTLED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 17 DEC to 19 DEC
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 DEC 085 Predicted 17 DEC-19 DEC 082/082/082 90 Day Mean 16 DEC 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 DEC 002/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 DEC 003/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 DEC-19 DEC 005/010-005/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 DEC to 19 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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