Viewing archive of Friday, 21 November 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Nov 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 NOV 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8108 (N19W21) PRODUCED
SEVERAL LOW C-CLASS SUBFLARES. DURING THE PERIOD, THIS REGION, GREW
SLIGHTLY AND A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION FORMED IN THE LEADER.
PREVIOUS MIXED POLARITIES REMAINED. SPACE-BASED IMAGERS SHOWED A
BROAD AREA OF EMISSION OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIMB WHERE OLD REGION 8100
IS DUE TO RETURN.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GENERALLY
LOW. REGION 8108 HAS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS
EVENTS. OLD REGION 8100 IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS ACTIVE AS LAST
ROTATION BUT UNTIL BETTER VIEWED, IT MUST BE CONSIDERED A CANDIDATE
FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. RECENT SOLAR WIND
DATA SHOW A VERY SLOW FLOW IN THE EARTH'S NEIGHBORHOOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED
MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON 23 NOV FROM A VERY LONG
DURATION X-RAY EVENT OBSERVED NEAR CENTRAL MERIDIAN ON 19 NOV.
III. Event Probabilities 22 NOV to 24 NOV
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 NOV 096 Predicted 22 NOV-24 NOV 103/108/110 90 Day Mean 21 NOV 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 NOV 002/002 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 NOV 003/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 NOV-24 NOV 015/015-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 NOV to 24 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
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