Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 November 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Nov 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 NOV 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. A SERIES OF UNCORRELATED
C-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS HAVE BEEN DETECTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE
LARGEST OF WHICH WAS A C2.3 AT 13/1508Z. REGION 8106 (N28W71)
PRODUCED A C1/SF WITH AN ASSOCIATED HIGH SPEED SURGE AT 13/1746Z.
THIS REGION CONTINUES TO GROW SLOWLY AS IT NEARS THE WEST LIMB. NEW
REGIONS 8107 (S25W26), A DRO SPOT GROUP, AND 8108 (N21E78), AN HAX
SPOT GROUP, WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGION 8108 EXHIBITS SPORADIC SURGING AND BRIGHTENING AND
APPEARS TO HAVE FAIR TO GOOD FLARE AND GROWTH POTENTIAL AS IT
ROTATES ONTO THE VISIBLE DISK. THIS REGION MAY DEVELOP A FAIR CHANCE
OF M-CLASS FLARE PRODUCTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
LATITUDES MAY EXPERIENCE SOME INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
ACTIVITY.
III. Event Probabilities 14 NOV to 16 NOV
| Class M | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 NOV 090 Predicted 14 NOV-16 NOV 092/092/094 90 Day Mean 13 NOV 090
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 NOV 002/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 NOV 005/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 NOV-16 NOV 005/005-005/008-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 NOV to 16 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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