Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 October 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Oct 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 OCT 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE VISIBLE DISK IS
CURRENTLY SPOTLESS. A 12 DEGREE LONG, 1/2 DEGREE WIDE NORMAL DENSITY
FILAMENT DISAPPEARED DURING THE INTERVAL 23/1211-1332Z FROM THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE FILAMENT FIRST SHOWED STRONG LINEAR CHANGE,
AND THEN BEGAN LOSING MASS QUICKLY IN AN ERUPTIVE MANNER, WITH AN
APPARENT EJECTION OF MATERIAL TRANSITING ALONG A 90 DEGREE RADIAL.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY
INCREASING TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE ON DAY TWO, AND ACTIVE TO MINOR
STORM ON DAY THREE. THIS ANTICIPATED DISTURBANCE IS IN RESPONSE TO
THE LONG DURATION C3 X-RAY AND ASSOCIATED HALO CME EVENT ON 21
OCTOBER.
III. Event Probabilities 24 OCT to 26 OCT
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 OCT 080 Predicted 24 OCT-26 OCT 079/078/078 90 Day Mean 23 OCT 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 OCT 007/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 OCT 006/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 OCT-26 OCT 015/020-025/030-030/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 OCT to 26 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 40% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
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