Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 August 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Aug 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 AUG 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. C-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS ASSOCIATED
WITH SURGING FROM NOW-DEPARTED REGION 8069 (N21W99) WERE THE MAIN
ACTIVITY OF THE DAY. THE LARGEST EVENTS WERE A C4 AT 2019Z AND A C3
AT 0729Z. THE TWO REMAINING SPOTTED REGIONS, 8070 (S20W15) AND 8071
(N26E37), WERE QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW. REGION 8069 WILL BE TWO DAYS PAST WEST LIMB TOMORROW, AND
LIKELY TOO REMOTE TO PRODUCE EVENTS DETECTABLE FROM NEAR-EARTH.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET. AN ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIOD
OCCURRED DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME ASSOCIATED WITH A BRIEF SUBSTORM.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED SUBSTORMS MAY
PERSIST DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS.
III. Event Probabilities 11 AUG to 13 AUG
| Class M | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 AUG 078 Predicted 11 AUG-13 AUG 078/078/080 90 Day Mean 10 AUG 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 AUG 010/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 AUG 008/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 AUG-13 AUG 010/010-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 AUG to 13 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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