Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 July 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Jul 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 JUL 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ONLY A FEW B-CLASS EVENTS
WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8065 (N17W70) HAS BECOME
STABLE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GROUP'S MAGNETIC STRUCTURE HAS
SIMPLIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY AND IT NOW SHOWS A SIMPLE BETA
CONFIGURATION.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENT OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN INCREASE
IS EXPECTED SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TOMORROW AND EARLY ON DAY THREE
DUE TO EFFECTS FROM A POSSIBLE TRANSIENT ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY'S
LONG DURATION X-RAY EVENT. IN ADDITION TO THIS, THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR EFFECTS FROM A CORONAL HOLE BEGINNING ON THE THIRD
DAY. MOSTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS (BUT WITH POSSIBILITY FOR ACTIVE
PERIODS) ARE EXPECTED ON DAY 2 AND UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS ARE
FORECAST FOR DAY THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 27 JUL to 29 JUL
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 JUL 077 Predicted 27 JUL-29 JUL 075/075/072 90 Day Mean 26 JUL 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 JUL 008/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 JUL 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 JUL-29 JUL 010/008-015/012-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 JUL to 29 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
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