Viewing archive of Monday, 16 June 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Jun 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 JUN 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8052 (N18W11) HAS
SHOWN SIGNIFICANT FLUX EMERGENCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, BUT DID NOT
PRODUCE ANY FLARE ACTIVITY. THE GROUP IS CURRENTLY A DRI CLASS
SUNSPOT GROUP WITH AN AREA RANGING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 50-90
(MILLIONTHS OF A HEMISPHERE) AND SPOT COUNT OF 15-20. THE GROUP'S
DOMINANT MAGNETIC INVERSION LINE RUNS NORTH-SOUTH WITH A FAIRLY
SIMPLE SHAPE. THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR POLARITY MIXING IN THE TRAILER
PART OF THE REGION. A SPECTACULAR LOOKING PROMINENCE WAS VISIBLE OFF
OF THE NORTHWEST LIMB AT ABOUT N35.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENT
FROM REGION 8052 OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 17 JUN to 19 JUN
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 JUN 072 Predicted 17 JUN-19 JUN 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 16 JUN 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 JUN 009/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 JUN 006/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 JUN-19 JUN 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 JUN to 19 JUN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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