Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 April 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Apr 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 17 APR 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8032 (S23W21) CONTINUES TO DECAY SLOWLY. NEW REGION 8033 (N29E15) WAS ASSIGNED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS, WITH SOME BRIEF MAJOR STORM INTERVALS AT HIGH LATITUDES. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRED BETWEEN 0000Z-0900Z, WITH ACTIVITY LEVELS DECLINING TO MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FROM 0900-2100Z. WIND DATA SUGGEST THAT THE DISTURBANCE WAS DUE TO A TRANSIENT IN THE SOLAR WIND.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TOMORROW, BUT WITH A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS. QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS SHOULD PREDOMINATE ON THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 18 APR to 20 APR
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 APR 072
  Predicted   18 APR-20 APR  072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        17 APR 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 APR  014/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 APR  017/023
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 APR-20 APR  010/015-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 APR to 20 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%10%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%25%25%
Minor storm20%10%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

All times in UTC

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