Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 April 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Apr 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 17 APR 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8032 (S23W21)
CONTINUES TO DECAY SLOWLY. NEW REGION 8033 (N29E15) WAS ASSIGNED
TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS, WITH
SOME BRIEF MAJOR STORM INTERVALS AT HIGH LATITUDES. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY OCCURRED BETWEEN 0000Z-0900Z, WITH ACTIVITY LEVELS
DECLINING TO MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FROM 0900-2100Z. WIND DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE DISTURBANCE WAS DUE TO A TRANSIENT IN THE SOLAR
WIND.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TOMORROW, BUT WITH A GOOD
POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS. QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS
SHOULD PREDOMINATE ON THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 18 APR to 20 APR
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 APR 072 Predicted 18 APR-20 APR 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 17 APR 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 APR 014/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 APR 017/023 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 APR-20 APR 010/015-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 APR to 20 APR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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