Viewing archive of Monday, 14 April 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Apr 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 APR 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C1
FLARE OCCURRED AT 14/0842Z. REGION 8031 (S29W62) CONTINUED TO
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE. THIS REGION IS NOW A SMALL TO MODERATE
SIZE D-CLASS GROUP. A NEW REGION EMERGED NEAR S23E21 AND WAS
NUMBERED AS REGION 8032.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT A LOW
LEVEL FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. REGION 8031 IS THE EXPECTED SOURCE OF
LOW LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS. VERY LOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN ON
17 APR AS REGION 8031 CROSSES THE WEST LIMB.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED. RECENT SOLAR
WIND DATA SHOWED A DECREASING TREND IN SOLAR WIND VELOCITY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 15 APR to 17 APR
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 APR 077 Predicted 15 APR-17 APR 078/079/076 90 Day Mean 14 APR 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 APR 007/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 APR 005/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 APR-17 APR 005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 APR to 17 APR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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