Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 April 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Apr 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 098 Issued at 2200Z on 08 APR 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8027 (S28E00)
REMAINED QUIET AND STABLE. THE SLOW DECAY OF THIS REGION HAS
APPARENTLY STABILIZED. NEW REGION 8028 (S07W50), AN AXX SPOT GROUP,
WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8027 STILL HAS A CHANCE FOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND
A DIMINSHED CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY. REGION 8028 IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY ACTIVE AT THIS TIME.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE
FIELD IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE INCREASING ACTIVITY BY THE END OF
DAY TWO AND BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE BY DAY THREE. HIGH LATITUDE
STATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE ACTIVE TO MINOR STORMING DURING THIS PERIOD.
ACTIVITY WILL BE A RESULT OF THE APPARENT CME ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAY'S C6/3N FLARE. AN INDEPENDENT SOURCE OF SOLAR DATA
INDICATES THAT A SIGNIFICANT CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE FLARE. THIS DATA CORROLATES WELL WITH REPORTED
TYPE II AND IV SWEEPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLARE.
III. Event Probabilities 09 APR to 11 APR
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 APR 076 Predicted 09 APR-11 APR 076/076/076 90 Day Mean 08 APR 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 APR 010/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 APR 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 APR-11 APR 010/010-015/020-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 APR to 11 APR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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