Viewing archive of Friday, 4 April 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Apr 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 094 Issued at 2200Z on 04 APR 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
M-CLASS EVENTS FROM REGION 8026 (S23W25).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVE CONDITIONS AROUND 04/0300Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS
WERE IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE FOLLOWING TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THE CME OBSERVED ON 01 APRIL.
III. Event Probabilities 05 APR to 07 APR
| Class M | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 APR 079 Predicted 05 APR-07 APR 079/078/078 90 Day Mean 04 APR 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 APR 009/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 APR 020/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 APR-07 APR 020/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 APR to 07 APR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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