Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 March 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Mar 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 086 Issued at 2200Z on 27 MAR 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A C1 X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED AT
1035Z. ALTHOUGH THERE WERE NO TIME-COINCIDENT OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE
TO PINPOINT THE SOURCE, A LIKELY CANDIDATE IS NEW REGION 8026
(S26E73). THIS REGION ROTATED INTO VIEW TODAY AS A SMALL BUT ACTIVE
BXO BETA SUNSPOT GROUP, AND WAS OBSERVED TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
SUBFLARE ACTIVITY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR AN ADDITIONAL C-CLASS
EVENT FROM REGION 8026 OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE FROM 26/2100 THROUGH
27/0100Z, BUT BECAME REMARKABLY QUIET AFTER 27/0100Z. QUIET
CONDITIONS PREVAILED FROM 27/0100-27/2100Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME VERY BRIEF UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVEL CONDITIONS AT A FEW HIGH
LATITUDE SITES BETWEEN 0700-1200Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUXES ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS (GREATER THAN 1000 PFU) DURING THE
REPORTING PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 28 MAR to 30 MAR
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 MAR 072 Predicted 28 MAR-30 MAR 073/074/075 90 Day Mean 27 MAR 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 MAR 014/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 MAR 006/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 MAR-30 MAR 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 MAR to 30 MAR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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