Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 January 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Jan 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 JAN 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8011 (S06W17) IS A
STABLE AND QUIET SINGLE AXX SPOT. NEW REGIONS 8012 (N27E11) AND 8013
(S32E64) WERE NUMBERED TODAY. BOTH ARE SMALL, QUIET AND APPEAR
STABLE SO FAR.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH A SINGLE PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED ABOUT 18/0300Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUX RANGED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 19 JAN to 21 JAN
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 JAN 075 Predicted 19 JAN-21 JAN 076/076/076 90 Day Mean 18 JAN 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 JAN 002/002 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 JAN 006/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 JAN-21 JAN 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 JAN to 21 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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