Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 December 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Dec 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 14 DEC 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. BOTH SPOTTED REGIONS,
8003 (S29W74) AND 8004 (N06E33), WERE STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX HAD PERIODS OF HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY QUIET
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE INTERVAL.
III. Event Probabilities 15 DEC to 17 DEC
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 DEC 083 Predicted 15 DEC-17 DEC 084/082/082 90 Day Mean 14 DEC 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 DEC 005/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 DEC 003/006 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 DEC-17 DEC 010/010-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 DEC to 17 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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