Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 November 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Nov 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 28 NOV 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 7999 (S05W34)
PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 28/1243Z. THIS REGION DECAYED SLIGHTLY IN
BOTH SUNSPOT AREA AND NUMBER. ANOTHER LONG DURATION X-RAY
ENHANCEMENT OCCURRED BETWEEN 28/1535-1902Z. A C1 MAXIMUM WAS
REACHED. CORONAGRAPH DATA AFTER THE EVENT SHOWED A MASSIVE
CORONAL MASS EJECTION OFF THE WEST LIMB. THE LONGITUDES
BEHIND THE WEST LIMB MUST BE UNDERGOING SIGNIFICANT
EVOLUTION.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE
LOW. REGION 7999 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL C-CLASS
AND ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD, SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES WERE BELOW 450 KM/S.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. THE CME MENTIONED ABOVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
ANY DISTURBANCE. EVEN IF THE FLANK OF THE CME STRUCK THE
EARTH, THE EFFECTS WOULD BE MINIMAL.
III. Event Probabilities 29 NOV to 01 DEC
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 NOV 098 Predicted 29 NOV-01 DEC 096/094/092 90 Day Mean 28 NOV 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 NOV 008/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 NOV 007/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 NOV-01 DEC 005/005-005/005-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 NOV to 01 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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