Viewing archive of Sunday, 24 November 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Nov 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 24 NOV 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 7999 (S04E19)
CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SMALL C-CLASS FLARES, BUT AT A HIGHER
CADENCE THAN YESTERDAY. THE REGION DOUBLED IN SPOT AREA TO
33O MILLIONTHS, AND SHOWS FREQUENT PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS. THE
OTHER SPOTTED REGION, 7997 (N05W54), WAS QUIET AND STABLE. SOHO
FE XII IMAGERY INDICATE A POSSIBLE CME FROM A SITE JUST SOUTH
OF REGION 7997 AT APPROXIMATELY 1200Z. THE ARCADE SPANNED
THE EQUATOR, CONNECTING TO NEAR S15. THE 10.7 CM FLUX REACHED
THE HIGHEST DAILY VALUE SINCE MARCH 3, 1994.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. REGION 7999 SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE C-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO GEOPHYSICAL
RESPONSE TO TODAY'S CME IS PREDICTED.
III. Event Probabilities 25 NOV to 27 NOV
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 NOV 100 Predicted 25 NOV-27 NOV 105/100/095 90 Day Mean 24 NOV 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 NOV 003/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 NOV 008/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 NOV-27 NOV 015/008-010/010-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 NOV to 27 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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