Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 November 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Nov 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 17 NOV 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED.
THE THREE ACTIVE REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK, 7995
(S00E05), 7997 (N08E50), AND 7998 (S14E46), REMAIN STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS HAVE
BEEN IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
MOSTLY ACTIVE ON DAY TWO, AND FALLING OFF TO QUIET TO
UNSETTLED ON DAY THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 18 NOV to 20 NOV
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 NOV 072 Predicted 18 NOV-20 NOV 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 17 NOV 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 NOV 005/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 NOV 012/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 NOV-20 NOV 015/020-020/025-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 NOV to 20 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 50% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 50% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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